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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.