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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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