War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".